By Robert Dilenschneider
Following is our final assessment of the upcoming November 6 elections, based on discussions with key analysts about the past week’s events.
Foremost on the minds of many is what impact Hurricane Sandy will have. The storm allowed President Obama to demonstrate presidential leadership and shore up his Democratic supporters. Ultimately, an endorsement from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and praise from Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey will likely have minimal impact on voters in Virginia worried about jobs and the economy. The storm, however, did not mute Gov. Mitt Romney’s momentum. Its impact on voter turnout, however, is difficult to gauge as there is no historical comparison.
In summary, projections for Election Day are as follows:
Romney continues to win Independent voters by a healthy margin, and he maintains a voter intensity advantage. The race will come down to how wide the President’s early vote margin is and his “get out the vote” effort on Nov. 6th. With wins in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado and/or Wisconsin—Romney will take the race.
In the Senate, the outcome depends a great deal on the presidential race. Nonetheless, Republicans face a tough path to reaching 50 seats even if Romney wins the election.
In one scenario, Republicans need to win in Montana, Nebraska, Ohio and Florida to reach 50 seats. In another, Republican Sen. Scott Brown needs to maintain his seat in Massachusetts, and Republicans must win races in “reach states” like Michigan, Connecticut and Hawaii.
Something dramatic would have to occur in the presidential race to make those seats a possibility for Republicans. If Republican Richard Mourdock loses the Senate race in Indiana to Democrat Joe Donnelly, it will be unlikely that Republicans gain a majority, even if Romney wins.
In the House, Republicans will likely experience a net loss of 5-6 seats. A block of congressional races in California may ultimately determine how many seats Republicans lose. If Republicans lose badly in California’s close congressional races, they risk losing 10-11 seats, though losses will likely be closer to 5-6. Either way, Republicans will maintain their House majority. 2
Some items of note during the last week of the campaign:
Even though Romney is trailing in Iowa, the state’s major newspapers have endorsed him, including the Des Moines Register, marking the first time that paper has endorsed a Republican presidential candidate since 1972.
The Obama campaign pulled out of North Carolina weeks ago, and the state will swing to Romney.
In New Hampshire, the presidential race is dead even at 47 percent.
The President is down by 10 points in Indiana.
The presidential race in Wisconsin is dead even, with Romney down about a point.
While polls in Michigan have narrowed, those projecting a Romney victory are overly optimistic.
Pennsylvania has come into play. Romney is heading to Southeast Pennsylvania on Sunday.
The President is ahead of Romney by an average of 1.95 points. An average of polls has the race at 47-46 in favor of Obama. Of concern to the Obama camp is that his support has peaked at 47 percent. If Independents break for Romney, his chances for victory in Ohio increase.
In 2008, roughly 33-34 percent of voters cast their vote early. This year an estimated 39-40 percent of voters will have cast their vote before Election Day. Obama is roughly 70 percent behind early vote margins in Florida from this date in 2008. A similar regional drop is occurring in Ohio, a pattern that generally indicates voter intensity.
In Pennsylvania, 95 percent of the population has not voted yet. Romney is down 3-4 points in Pennsylvania, from 8-9 points earlier. One poll has Romney down by one percentage point, which is not believable. Philadelphia is a strong Democratic stronghold, though voters tied to the energy sector have pledged strong support for Romney.
Over the last two weeks, Romney purchased airtime in the Boston area to reach markets in New Hampshire. Obama is now up by 15 points in Massachusetts polling, down from 26 points. Brown would still need an extraordinary amount of ticket-splitters to win the race, and would need to
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Robert
Dilenschneider runs The Dilenschneider Group in New York.
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A bit of a scoffer (11/08):
Nice spin. But even using the royal "we" doesn't make this anything more than a hoped-for self fulfilling prophecy.
Unfortunately, we can all fact check. The poll #s cited her are not in sync with NY Times, Gallup or any other reputable poll aggregator.
In last 10 days independents have broken for Obama.
Saying Romney will "win" North Carolina puts him at 206 votes given the red red red states he has had from Day One. Long way to 270.
To say "all" he has to do is capture every possible swing state -- seriously?
I expected this article to have a semblance, a passing acquaintance, with balance.
If you're trying to convince the upscale, executive PR pro's who read this newsletter to vote for Romney -- feel free.
They were Romney's long ago.
Meanwhile, some other facts. Turnout in Toledo,Ohio (yup, the union town where Romney lied about their jobs being sent to China and shot himself in teh foot) is AHEAD of 2008.
Christie's praise of Obama sure does mean something to the hundreds of thousands of right winger GOPers who wanted him to run and who hate Romney.
And OK, we'll give you Bloomberg not mattering.
How'd you forget about General Colin Powell? Oh -- he doesn't fit with your narrative.
Kind of sad to see what lengths the Romney spinners will got to hang onto their parallel universe (as the CEO of Chrysler said of Romney's close-the-Jeep-plant lies). |