By Steve Bryant
The possible demise of Hostess has played out in the media as a tale of Twinkies, but the dollars and cents of the matter come down to two big issues: the decline of the bread business and the vast diversification of snacking.
Bread took a serious blow in the low-carb decade and, despite a perception that “carbophobia” is history, consumer enthusiasm for bread has only partially recovered. If that sounds like today’s economy, the comparison is apt. While the apparent cause of bread’s decline seemed obvious, another, more persistent cause was at work: Changing lifestyles that have pushed to the extreme our definition of ready-to-eat.
Picture June Cleaver. She whips out a ready-made loaf of Wonder Bread. (It’s a wonder she didn’t have to make it herself.) She pops the ready-cut bread – count that as another innovation – into her new-fangled toaster. (Will the miracles of modern convenience ever end?) Could life be any simpler?
The answer, Hostess can vouch, is resoundingly, yes.
A nice piece of buttered and jammed toast takes -- what? -- three to five minutes? That could once have defined convenience. Today’s breakfast makers are more likely to put that buttered toast and jam into a blender, squirt it out in bars, and wrap it in a shiny foil wrapper. Grab, go, eat on the way to work or school, and you’re done. No napkin required.
Pocket bread, wraps and tortillas have served up a similar fate for sliced bread, with sales falling 11.3% from 2006 to 2011, according to SymphonyIRI. Rising whole grain bread sales are a bright spot, but overall category weakness has escalated consolidation in the bread business (Hostess itself was built through consolidation).
But the real mourning this past week is all about Twinkies and their snacking kin. They have well earned a place in the “Snacking Hall of Fame,” but the world of snacking has changed radically since their introduction. Sure, you could chalk up their fate to changing nutrition and wellness concerns – but you’d be mostly wrong. There is still an enormous market for consumers who don’t give a fig for healthy eating!
Here’s the daunting fact: Consumers have vastly more snacking choices in store these days. And the competition is about to get fiercer, with nearly every major food maker declaring snacks as a focus of growth initiatives. This new snacking land grab is a response to the startling fact that, according to The Hartman Group, about half of eating occasions are now snacking occasions.
In the branded food and beverage PR business, a large share of the communications work we handle is introducing new items that appeal to evolving lifestyle needs of consumers. There’s a reason: Consumers make dozens of food choices a day, and they welcome variety. Brands snooze, they lose.
It’s true that brands have lately gained a lot of traction with communications that mine their origin stories. “Fruits are found in the roots of brands,” a colleague likes to say.
However, this brand excavation works best in illuminating a brand’s enduring sense of purpose.
Like others, I don’t think we’ve heard the death knell for Twinkies. The indestructible snack may well live another day, just as Cracker Jacks are still on shelf … last time I checked. But then, that’s the problem. We have affection for the oldies but goodies, but the growth is in options that are geared to the pace and demands of life today.
In the latest twist, a court has ordered mediation and the sun may yet come out for Twinkies and Snowballs. Along other would be acquirers, Sun Capital Partners has refreshed its offer for the company, promising capital for innovation. Now we’re talking. What are the Twinkies of Tomorrow?
Therein lies hope for the Twinkies of Yesterday.
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Steve Bryant leads the Food & Beverage business at MSLGROUP North America. |