Preparing Foreign Clients for the 2016 Election

Eric Lebson and Ian Christopher McCaleb authored this piece.

There has never been a setup for a United States general election like our current Republican and Democratic debate circus. The rhetoric has been red-hot, the personalities have been larger than life, and pundits and political viewers across the country are engaging in the usual speculation and poll interpretation as they wait patiently to observe who will emerge as the eventual nominees this summer.

Foreign companies and individuals should also be paying attention, and understand that their future operations and livelihoods will be impacted by who takes the reins next January. Millions — if not billions — of dollars could be on the line.

These clients possess varying levels of sophistication when it comes to US elections, but regardless of their industry or sector, foreign clients need to know — sooner rather than later — how they might expect to deal with the next administration. In gaining valuable knowledge and foresight, they’ll wisely equip their management, employees, investors and other stakeholders for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Take, for example, the tax policies that would be enacted by a President Cruz as opposed to a President Sanders. Both would be markedly different than those under President Obama, and both would impact foreign clients in dramatically different ways. Unclear tax proposals — or radically different philosophies of taxation — could have tremendous, negative effects on a foreign company’s bottom line as it struggles under a series of assumptions that could move one way or another under a new administration.

Similarly, changes to immigration law could influence how foreign companies operating within the United States attract specialized, skilled labor to work in their facilities. And rhetoric around various ethnic minorities and foreign nations — some of it shocking in these early stages — could impact trade policy and bilateral relationships when a nominee is chosen.

Foreign clients can get a leg up by seeking the right educational counsel and engaging in even the basic business intelligence platforms available at this phase in the campaign. Now is the time to lay the foundation for success after the inaugural ceremonies of January 2017.

For example, one of the most common questions we hear from clients revolves around determinations of who might attain key positions in the next presidential administration. Even the most experienced political hand knows that it’s still far too early to tell, but this type of answer is often wholly unsatisfying to the client.

Consider that almost every policy position and statement made by a candidate is devised with thought behind it, as well as the input of experts. This is true of measured positions, as well as the influential, memorable, and controversial ones. Some of these campaign advisors move on to significant positions in new administrations, and dossiers on their personalities, preferences, and policy positions, as well as leaderboards handicapping odds for Cabinet seats, will give foreign clients months of advance prep time.

This advance time can prove invaluable to a client’s success under a new administration, as corporate priorities and policies can be drafted for new personnel eventuality, some of which will be relevant for implementation as soon as an election winner is declared. In one sense, a foreign company can read what a leading candidate has published on a campaign website, but often campaign rhetoric doesn’t translate into policy when a candidate comes into power. Understanding the candidate’s sentiment, as well as those of key advisors, provides an indicator that can at least suggest which way policy will eventuate.

Election success in this country is driven by combinations of solid policy and emotional appeal, and to outside observers — especially those who are used to wildly different political cultures — the US national election cycle can be a confusing morass of reactionary speech and shifting priorities. Luckily, there are practitioners who can provide structure and reason to all of this apparently fractured rhyme. By engaging these rarified experts early, concerned clients can turn the confusion and the anxiety that comes with powerful election rhetoric into early business and decision advantage.

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Eric Lebson and Ian Christopher McCaleb are business intelligence practitioners at Levick, a public affairs and crisis communications firm. They routinely assist foreign clients with laying the groundwork to anticipate and navigate political risk scenarios that impact their bottom line.