By Fraser P. Seitel
The question most asked by our countrymen today – second only to, "Who’s more obnoxious: Bill Maher or Stephen A. Smith?" – is, "Do the Republicans have any chance at all of beating President Obama?"
The short answer is, "Yes but ..."
With the stock market flirting again with 13,000, the unemployment rate descending toward eight percent and the Republican candidates continuing to eviscerate one another – the odds today point to a clear Obama reelection in November.
But things can change, particularly in a nation populated by meager memories and limited attention spans. So Republicans shouldn’t give up the ship – at least, not yet.
But if Republicans expect to have any chance in November, as Obama builds momentum and a huge war chest, they better get a grip on reality PDQ. And that "reality" includes the following incontrovertible facts about the party’s eventual nominee:
- There is no way on god’s brownish earth that a "white knight," not now in the race, will ride to the Republicans’ rescue. Neither Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie nor Jeb Bush are going to mobilize, organize and finance a viable campaign in time to beat the Obama machine.
- No matter who wins next week’s Michigan Primary – where Democrats will jump party lines and stuff ballot boxes for Rick Santorum -- neither Santorum, Newt Gingrich nor Ron Paul has a prayer of ever being elected by a majority of Americans. Santorum is a zealot, Gingrich is a phony, and Paul is, well, who knows what he is. The point is that despite the Republican primaries, Americans are more independent/moderate/neutral than ever. They disdain hard left and hard right and will only elect someone perceived to be in the "middle" as President. So nominating one of these three stooges is a death wish for Republicans.
- Therefore, the only viable Republican candidate – for better or worse – is Mitt Romney.
So how then can Romney, who has fallen hard from grace despite spending millions, possibly beat an incumbent with an improving economy on his side?
I’d suggest adopting the following PR platform and sticking to it.
Romney’s greatest strength is what he has inexplicably tried to downplay ever since Gingrich’s kamikaze attack in South Carolina. Romney is an experienced businessman. He has managed people. He has hired people. He has built businesses. And he has prospered.
All things that America desperately needs and that Barack Obama hasn’t done.
Since Gingrich’s self-serving attack on private equity and Wall Street and financiers, Romney has shied away from emphasizing this dominant part of his background. Big mistake.
The U.S. economy – despite the rising market and declining unemployment – is sputtering. Millions of people of all ages are out-of-work. America needs somebody with the experience and knowledge and capacity to get the commercial economy reignited and put people back to work. The President has flopped in trying. Romney – at least on paper and by experience – might be able to succeed.
And that must be the basis of his run for the Presidency
- Don’t be all things to all people.
The Republican primary process, despite the continuing support of Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and conservatives in all the states that are left to be heard, has been an unmitigated disaster for the party.
First, it’s provided a treasure trove of opposition research and ammunition for Obama’s fall campaign. Second, its awarded disproportional clout to a handful of vocal right wingers in marginal venues like Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, who get one moment in the sun every four years to disrupt the party’s apple cart. Third, as a consequence of trying to appease these conservatives, Romney has contorted himself and his positions to a point where he doesn’t even know where he stands.
Clearly because of the cockamamie process, Romney needs to kowtow to conservatives to win the nomination. But if he hopes to have a chance in the general election, he’s got to stop saying anything the electorate in question wants to hear. For instance, he should ...
As Gov. Christie will find out next election when New Jersey voters overwhelmingly support gay marriage, most people who aren’t gay could care less.
Again, most voters are independent. And most independents have concluded that if gay people believe so strongly in embracing a waning institution like marriage so that children might have a loving family and a better chance – more power to 'em.
The point is for Romney to get suckered by his opponents into seizing marginally-relevant social issues like this one (at least to everybody but gay people and the media), just reveals how far afield his campaign his drifted.
- Selectively attack the incumbent.
Likewise, Romney should resist joining the parade of those attacking Obama for "doing everything wrong." The fact is the President did the right thing in saving the banks and bailing out the auto industry. And it makes little sense for a businessman like Romney to nitpick these proper Presidential decisions. (Just watch what happens in Michigan!)
Obama’s healthcare law, on the other hand, is a disaster. So is the President’s wrongheaded, embarrassingly-political decision to stop the Keystone Pipeline. And Obama’s entrenched belief in government over private sector solutions is inarguable.
These are the vulnerable areas that Romney should attack, rather than wasting his time and political capital in parroting his opponents’ ipso facto hostility to all things Obama.
The fact is that Mitt Romney is still the Republicans’ best and only chance to unseat President Obama. Following this kind of public relations mantra – that draws a clear line between what he and Obama stand for – will help get Romney back on course. And the sooner he straightens himself out, the better.
Despite the fact there are 11 long months to go before the presidential election, for Mitt Romney time is running out. |