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Trump’s lie about carnage may come true. Donald Trump’s plan to deport 13.3M immigrants without legal status would cost a staggering $315B, according to the American Immigration Council. It also will rip America apart.
Putting that massive round-up in context, there were 1.9M people locked up in federal, state, county and local jails in 2022.
The Council estimates the government would need up to 420K new employees to arrest more than 13.3M people.
Mass deportations would wreak havoc on the hospital, construction and agricultural sectors of the economy. The Council says about 14 percent of construction workers are undocumented immigrants.
And of course, there is a soul-crushing component of mass deportation. More than 5.1M US citizen children live with an undocumented family member.
Separating family members would obviously result in a tremendous emotional stress, but it would also trigger economic hardships as families lose their breadwinners.
The Council predicts a weaponized federal government that raids homes and takes neighbors away would destroy the social fabric, increase vigilantism and boost the number of hate crimes.
Trump’s deportation scheme would make real the lie that he spews to MAGA cultists about violence and destruction that supposedly is now happening in the streets of America.
We ain’t seen nothing yet.
Throwing it all away. America dominates the global economy—by far—but that leadership is threatened by our poisonous politics, according to the October 19 issue of The Economist.
It notes that over that last three decades America has left the rest of the world in the dust.
In 1990, the US accounted for about 40 percent of the G-7 countries’ GNP. Today it’s half.
The average worker in America’s poorest state, Mississippi, earns more than her counterparts in the UK, Germany and Canada.
The magazine warns that policies advocated by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could be the first steps leading to America’s decline.
Those policies protect the interests of their supporters.
Both promise tax and giveaways with Harris focused on spending more on families and Trump wanting to give tax relief on just about everything.
But it’s Trump who poses the bigger risk to America’s extraordinary economy.
On the campaign trail, he speaks of “imposing ruinous tariffs on imports and embarking on huge programs to deport millions of non-citizens, many of whom have been fully integrated into the labour market for years,” notes the magazine.
Trump’s cavalier attitude toward the rule of law and the independence of the Federal Reserve could undermine the reputation of the US as an economic powerhouse.
America isn’t going to lose its economic dominance overnight.
“But sooner or later, rotten politics will start to exact a heavy price, and by then it will be hard to reverse course,” says The Economist.
We’ve been warned.
Getting in fighting shape. Interpublic CEO Philippe Krakowsky told investors on Oct. 22 they can expect more streamling ahead in 2025.
That process began earlier in 2024 with the divestiture of Deutsch New York and Hill Holiday and continued in Q3 as IPG took a $232M impairment charge for the impending sales of Huge and R/GA.
“We’re also looking closely at strategic options to drive incremental growth through internal combinations that help us to achieve scale or connect complementary services, and we’re looking at actions that would further re-balance our asset mix through potential dispositions,” said Krakowsky.
Close attention will be paid to IPG’s operational structure, which includes making use of near and offshoring.
Interpublic is assessing structural actions such as moving to unified back office functions and leadership teams in many international markets, as well as our use of real estate, to both improve collaboration and eliminate unnecessary costs, he said.
On the growth front, there are strategic opportunities in specialized data assets in commerce and retail media, also companies with retail media technology platforms and reach.
Krakowsky noted that IPG has always been a disciplined buyer and integrator of businesses.
It has a knack for tactical mergers & acquisitions that scale capabilities that clients need, and accelerate the change in its asset mix and growth profile.
That is a priority for 2025.
Hats off to Federal Board chairman Jerome Powell for finally getting off his duff to stand up to his unhinged taunter-in-chief. A posse of central bankers from here and afar rally in support of Powell.
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