Trump’s Economy Will Cost GOP the Midterms

Jon Gingerich

Two years ago, I predicted that if President Biden didn’t get consumer-goods prices under control—specifically, sky-high grocery prices—it would cost him reelection. Admittedly, I don’t have the best track record when it comes to making political predictions, but for once, I was right on the money.

And now, nine months out from the midterms, it appears that history is poised to repeat itself under President Trump’s watch.

Trump was elected, in large part, to fix the nation’s battered economy. That hasn’t happened. Instead, our economy under Trump’s watch began moving downward, particularly toward the end of 2025, and there’s no sight of a course-correction on the horizon. Grocery prices are rising, not going down, in case you haven’t noticed. Beef prices are up more than 16 percent in the last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as drought, low cattle count and overhead costs—due, in part, to Trump’s immigration crackdown—have crippled the cattle industry. And thanks to tariffs, aluminum costs have caused the prices of simple canned goods to go up, too. In total, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, food prices were up 2.9 percent in the last year, the biggest uptick since March 2024. Food prices increased 0.7 percent in December alone, the fastest single-month increase since October 2022.

It doesn’t stop with food. Inflation remains stubbornly high: Prices on all goods in the last year are up 2.4 percent, down from 3 percent a year ago but above the two-percent annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. (No wonder why the Fed isn’t bullish about lowering interest rates.) Unfortunately, the Labor Department in late February reported that the Producer Price Index, a leading inflation indicator, rose 2.9 percent for the year and .5 between January and December alone, far higher than expected. Translation: Inflation is still a big problem. The U.S. dollar in January sank to its lowest level in four years, with most of that decline happening in the last 12 months. The job market is terrible: While hiring got a bump in January, the U.S. labor market added only about 181,000 jobs in 2025, a fraction of the 1.5 million jobs it created in 2024. The U.S. unemployment rate now stands at 4.3 percent, down from several months ago but up from 4 percent a year ago.

Americans are well aware of the mess we’re in, and a growing number of us think Trump is to blame. A February NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 59 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. According to a recent CNN poll, 68 percent believe he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems (that includes nearly three out of 10 Republicans and 60 percent of independents), and 61 percent think Trump’s policies are moving the country in the wrong direction. As a result, Trump’s job approval rating now stands at 36 percent, a new low for his second term.

Perhaps it’s no surprise, then, that Americans are now exhibiting the kinds of cost-saving behaviors we typically see in recession cycles. According to a recent Politico poll, half of Americans surveyed said they’re having a hard time paying for food. About a quarter said costs have caused them to skip a medical check-up (27 percent) or a prescription (23 percent). A recent 84.51° survey found that price now beats health concerns when it comes to what keeps people from buying sweets. And Americans know where those price increases are coming from: More than half of those surveyed (55 percent) blame Trump for our current high food prices, according to the Politico poll. A February Ipsos poll found that more than two-thirds of Americans (67 percent) said they believe Trump’s tariffs have caused prices to go up on the things they buy. (That number has grown markedly since last year, when it stood at 52 percent.) And they’re not wrong: A January report found that U.S. importers and consumers—not foreign countries—are footing the bill for almost all (96 percent) of those tariff costs. To add even more insult to injury: Despite those sweeping tariffs, the U.S. trade deficit for goods still hit records in 2025, according to data released by the Census Bureau in February. So, why are we still levying tariffs? Because Trump wants to, that's why.

How is Trump responding to this crisis? As we heard in his State of the Union address, so far his strategy has been to pretend that things are going swimmingly. He’s now even mocking the clarion call of “affordability” that he made a focus of his 2024 campaign. He’s walking into the same messaging trap that cost Biden the election two years ago.

Of course, Trump isn’t up for reelection. But conservatives are feeling cagey about the midterms, and for good reason. Republicans have a razor-thin majority in the House, and any poll you can point to shows it’s the Dems’ race to lose. Conservatives are bracing for a clobbering in November, and if that happens, it will seriously hobble Trump’s agenda next year and beyond. Still, Trump doesn’t seem interested in changing his economic policies anytime soon—even after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariff orders in February. (He responded by imposing a 15 percent global tariff anyway.) And now he’s allegedly exploring the possibility of exerting executive powers to change our voting laws. Doubling down isn’t damage control, and ignoring a problem is never a good plan, especially during election season. I’m ready to make another prediction: This won’t end well for Republicans in November.