By Fraser P. Seitel
And the next President of the United States of America is ... Barack Obama.
Or at least he could be. And if the election were held today, he'd win in a walk.
Don't get me wrong. I wouldn't vote for him. He's been a colossal disappointment as president, unable to make decisions to move the economy, unwilling to optimize the "bully pulpit" for which he is so well equipped, and thoroughly unimpressive as a leader.
So by all rights, he should be a one-term President.
But he's facing the Republicans, the most inept agglomeration of hapless amateurs since the '62 Mets.
Here's the PR formula Obama needs to follow to boost his chances of bringing the nation four more years of aimless drift.
#1 Johnny One-Note on Jobs.
The economy is the election, and the election is the economy. Last week's improvement in the unemployment rate below 9% -- as seasonally suspect as it might have been – boosted the President's stock enormously. What will help Obama's reelection chance more than anything else is a continuing inching down of the unemployment rate?
Achieving that, however, in a depressed economy, beset by debt and uncertainty, is by no means guaranteed. So what Obama must do – to the exclusion of everything else – is talk about the need for jobs. Accordingly, railing about investing taxpayer money in building roads and bridges, fixing airports, repairing potholes, and making other necessary infrastructure changes is also a winning strategy.
Sure, Republicans will scream about yet another potentially "wasteful stimulus." But in the face of no specific Republican alternative to putting people to work – and there ain't one -- Obama would be well advised to drop his reluctance and become more singularly vocal on jobs.
#2 Mangle the Millionaires.
Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi will never make a Mensa meeting, but they're onto something by attacking Republican opposition to raising taxes minimally on the 300,000 Americans earning more than $1 million annually.
Tea Party Republicans' allegiance to the Grover Norquist pledge to "never raise taxes" raises several questions.
· First, are these people really the "job creators" the Republicans claim?
Answer: No. Job creators are the ones making $250,000 and up, not those making $1 million and up. The vast majority of the latter category are fat cat lawyers, investment managers and traders, and talk show hosts like Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly and Rush Limbaugh.
· Second, are most Americans opposed to raising millionaire taxes?
Answer: No. Most Americans fundamentally concerned about themselves and not some fat cat lawyers, would willingly accept millionaires being taxed at a higher rate.
· Third, who in God's name would listen to somebody named "Grover Norquist" anyway?!!
Republicans are right that such a tax won't do much to lower the deficit or pay for much. But that's not the point. The point is PR. And Republican adamancy to protect millionaires will help Obama.
#3 Maximize the Market.
One of the most curious aspects of Obama is that reportedly, he has never held stock in any public company. Indeed, it's not an exaggeration to suggest that Obama is probably the most anti-capitalist President since Jimmy Carter.
It's ironic, therefore, that a rising stock market can propel this Occupy Wall Street favorite to a second term. But it can. Millions of Americans depend for their continued sustenance on pension funds invested in corporate equities. As the stock market goes, so goes the fortune of America.
Last week, when the market skyrocketed, the President benefited, despite any latent disdain for capitalism he may harbor. If next November, the market has continued to rise, Obama will be reelected.
#4 Republican Selfishness.
As Republicans continue to stifle seemingly positive proposals – most recently the payroll tax cut – just because they emanate from Democrats and Obama, their credibility dissipates. They seem hell-bent on proving the Democrat contention that they're purposely delaying anything positive till Obama leaves the White House.
Latest Republican selfishness emerged over the weekend from a former hero. Herman Cain's prima donna act began to get old after about the fourth female accuser. When the fifth one hit – complete with unanswered accusations about dates to Tyson-Holyfield and casual Cain canoodling – it was time for Herman to hit the road.
Nonetheless, the erstwhile candidate strung out the media and his bait-and-switched supporters yet again by excruciatingly extending his farewell press conference for four more hours of preening and jive.
Such selfishness may add to the Cain family coffers but also helps reinforce the notion that Republican politicians care a lot more about feathering their own nests than rewarding their followers.
#5 Candidate Newt.
Finally, should the Republicans actually pull the suicidal trigger and nominate Newt Gingrich as their candidate, Obama's reelection is assured.
Newt Gingrich might well be as astute and knowledgeable as he presumes he is. But….there is no way on earth that this country will ever elect a short, fat white man with the moral standing of Clinton and the personality of Rasputin to replace an intelligent, good-natured and approachable black man who plays basketball – no matter how much he might secretly object to the economic system upon which the nation is based.
The fact is that in a Presidential election, PR matters. And those Republicans who refuse to acknowledge that simple fact are doomed to lose yet again.
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