Donald the Rabbit

Here are two predictions you can take to the bank.

Donald Trump will not be elected President but ...

Donald Trump ain’t going away any time soon.

The fact is that Trump, using his own resources (plus the fees he made from the $25 tickets he sold to his Michigan campaign speech), will remain a Republican presidential nominee candidate till the very end.

And that’s good news for one person, in particular, Jeb Bush.

Here’s why.

No fewer than a dozen debates and some 40 primaries and caucuses are scheduled between now and March 2016. The Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary, don’t commence until February of next year – exactly six months from now. In other words, despite chock-a-block media coverage of the Donald and his merry men (and woman), the race for the Republican presidential nomination is, inarguably, an interminably long slog; or, if you prefer, a marathon.

Accordingly, as experienced runners understand, marathons frequently include pace-setters or pacemakers often referred to as “rabbits,” whose job it is to set the pace and lead the field over the first portion of the race, so that the more competent runners aren’t forced to tax themselves too arduously. They bide their time while the front runner dazzles the crowd. Over time, the rabbit drops back, leaving it to the experienced marathoners to take over and eventually win the race.

In the marathon that is the 2016 Republican presidential nomination race, Donald Trump is the rabbit.

A master of bad taste, bad hair, pomposity, rudeness, bombast and braggadocio -- Republican primary voters can’t get enough of him. They despise the political class, and so does he. They think Americans should speak English, and so does he. They cheat on their taxes, and so does he. They’ve had it up to here with the Bushes and Clintons and Harry Reids and Chuck Schumers and Mitch McConnels and John Boehners, and so has he.

And so, when these potential voters are asked by pollsters who they prefer in the race, why the screaming answer is “The Donald,” of course.

• That doesn’t mean they believe that Trump has any strategies or solutions to solve the country’s problems. He doesn’t.
• Nor does it mean they think Trump has the temperament necessary for a White House chief executive. He doesn’t.
• Nor does it even mean that these same people who tell pollsters that Trump is their man would ever wind up voting for him as the Republican nominee. They won’t.

But because the nomination process has months to go, the nomination itself is one year away and Trump is such great public relations theater – there’s no harm and no risk in telling the pollsters when they ask, “Trump has my your vote right now. “

The fact is that “right now” means nothing.

Meanwhile, Jeb Bush, the real potential nominee with the major money necessary to get there, and his chief rival, Marco Rubio, need only represent themselves responsibly – as they both did in the Fox debate – as The Donald preens and struts and eagerly commands the attention of a media that is just as eager to highlight him. Bush, and to a lesser extent Rubio, need not tax themselves and waste political capital. There will be time for that later when it really counts.

Both Bush and Rubio and the other professional politicians in the crowd understand full well that Trump – who is either too lazy or preoccupied to waste time developing positions on issues, lacks any political infrastructure and disdains advice from anybody not named “Donald Trump” -- will burn himself out as the marathon continues, his act gets tired and Republicans realize that as much fun as he is, they still need a candidate capable of attracting at least some of the struggling middle class income earners and African Americans and Latinos and women and moderate Democrats who can’t stand Trump and increasingly dominate national elections.

If they want to win, they’ve got to convince at least some of those people to forsake the flawed and eminently beatable Hillary and vote Republican

But that decision comes further down the road.

For the moment, Bush and Rubio and the others are quite content with The Donald continuing to dominate. As far as they’re concerned, “Run Rabbit Run.”