 Robert Dilenschneider |
Secretary Clinton is enjoying a seven-point lead over Donald Trump, 46 to 39. That’s a significant turn-around from Trump’s lead following the Republican convention, but it’s still way too early to make any predictions.
Will this be an election in which the issues are debated? Will there be serious discussions about education, health care, senior citizens and more? Don’t count on it.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, the time between now and Nov. 8 is likely to be filled with insults, innuendo and libel. Even though the economy is improving, employment is up and manufacturing is stronger, there’s a deep-seated anger in the nation, and that’s what both candidates are trying to tap into.
It will all boil down to the swing states — in particular Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Colorado — so look for both candidates to focus most of their time and money on those voters. The television advertising is going to be intense with both candidates hitting each other hard. We can be sure Trump will be attacked on his relationships with the Russians, his bankruptcies and his failure to release his income taxes, and that Clinton will be on the receiving end of charges about Benghazi, her emails and FBI Director Comey’s comment about her “carelessness.”
Is it possible the election could wind up in an Electoral College tie and go to the House for resolution? That’s conceivable, given how evenly divided the nation appears to be right now.
In dramatic terms, the next big events will be the debates. The bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates fixed the dates nearly a year ago. They are:
• Monday, September 26, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY.
• Sunday, October 9, Washington University in St. Louis.
• Wednesday, October 19, University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Trump is making noise about renegotiating the schedule because two debates conflict with NFL games. But as the Commission points out, it’s almost impossible to schedule any evening event in the fall that doesn’t overlap with a televised football game. Despite his complaints, the likelihood that Trump might skip a debate or even two is extremely low.
As many as 20 percent of voters are still uncommitted and may not choose which way they will go until the final days of the election, often on the basis of emotion. The debate performances, therefore, could well be the decisive factor.
Trump can point to his many victories in the GOP encounters when he devastated a large field of opponents, most of them experienced, highly regarded public figures. Clinton proved herself to be a composed, articulate debate performer in her encounters with Bernie Sanders, and she has made it clear her strategy will be to bait Trump into losing his self-control. How that plays out in front of what will surely be huge national audiences could tip the election and determine America’s fate far into the future.
And don’t discount the possibility of an October surprise.
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Robert L. Dilenschneider is chairman and founder of the Dilenschneider Group, Inc.
The ridiculously high prices Americans are paying at the supermarket might influence how—or if—they vote in November.
At a moment in history when there are so many conflicts among peoples here and abroad, let us put our differences aside and celebrate this wonderful season in a spirit of togetherness.
The news announcing the death of Henry Kissinger, the last of the prevaricating politicians and so-called statesmen who stole my future and that of thousands of other young Americans, got me thinking about Walter Cronkite.
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